Source: Infield Systems’ Market Modeling & Forecasting Database
National operator subsidiary
Average water depth
Fully integrated oil company
National oil company
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Number of felds entering production
in US Gulf of Mexico (%) by operator type 2011-2020
Worldwide offshore rig count & utilization rate (May 2014 – April 2016)
May14 July14Sept14Nov14 Jan15March15May15July15Sept15Nov15 Jan16March16
Total util Total supply Total contracted Working
Source: IHS RigPoint Notes: Rig types included are jackups, semis, and drillships.
Global liquids cost curve (Brent-equivalent breakeven oil price, USD/bbl)
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis; UCube March 2016
0 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
US Gulf of Mexico >>>>>>>>
This month Infield looks at field developments in the US Gulf of Mexico (GoM)
which are anticipated to enter production
before the end of 2020. 72% of the fields
expected to start production are situated
in water depths greater than 1,000 m
( 3,281 ft), providing potential opportunities to the subsea supply chain. Historically high oil prices and maturing shallow
water production encouraged deepwater
exploration before the current low oil price
environment took hold.
A recent development is the start of
production at ExxonMobil and Statoil’s
Julia field in the Walker Ridge area. Shell’s
phased Stones development, located in
water depths of around 2,896 m ( 9,501 ft),
also is expected to start operations this
year. The first phase of the project comprises eight subsea production wells tied back
to SBM Offshore’s Turritella FPSO, which
will become the world’s deepest offshore
production facility. Other Shell developments which could also start production
include the ultra-deepwater Appomattox
field. The project is being developed using
a semisubmersible production platform
which will also be used to exploit the
Vicksburg field. Oil will be transported
from the field via the 24-in. Mattox pipeline.
Other nearby discoveries may also be tied
into the platform at a later stage.
Another notable project currently under
development is Hess’ Stampede field,
which is one of the largest undeveloped
fields in the GoM. Infield anticipates
Stampede to enter production mid-way
through the forecast. It used a TLP supplied by MODEC. Another TLP, Chevron’s
Big Foot development, suffered a setback
in 2015 after buoyancy modules holding
the tendons failed and is now expected to
start production in 2018.
–George Griffiths, Infield
Global liquids >>>>>>>>>>>>
Producing fields are the cheapest supply
source, as opposed to the most expensive
– non-producing oil sands – with $69/bbl.
The producing fields’ low breakeven price
is due to past capex that we consider as
sunk, cheap Middle East and shale production. Non-producing shale and oil sands
are the marginal sources of supply in 2020
with high drilling/completion costs for the
former and high capex/opex for the latter.
Rystad Energy’s liquids cost curve is
made up of nearly 20,000 unique assets
by considering each asset’s breakeven
oil price and potential production in 2020.
The breakeven price is the Brent oil price
at which NPV equals zero, considering all
future cash flows using a real discount
rate of 7.5%.