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given installation rate show the slow scenario
above the base case.
Similarly, a lower installation rate will de-
press active structure counts relative to higher
install rates since decommissioned structures
will not be replenished. In this case, the trends
are clearly separated.
For fixed platforms, the most likely future
scenario shows a decline in the standing
structures following the slow scenario with
an assumed 0.2 structures per year install rate.
For floaters, the most likely scenario yields
an increasing inventory that ranges midway
between the slow and the base scenarios for
an assumed 2 floaters per year installation rate.
The composite active inventory forecast
indicates that there is likely to be a modest
increase in the number of deepwater structures in the GoM over the next two decades.
The active structure forecast incorporates
several features and assumptions:
• Decline curve models for producing
structures with parameters that include
oil and gas price, economic limits, and
• Status quo assumptions for the decline
curve models – current well inventory,
no new wells, no problem wells, no new
regulations, no capital spending.
• Decommissioning time parameter τ after
economic limit is reached reflect historic
activity and structure class differences.
• User-defined decommissioning schedule
for idle structures and marginal producers assumes uniform removals over a
time horizon T.
• Future installation rates for fixed platforms
and floaters are assumed similar to historic
activity data over a 20- to 30-year period. •
Active inventory of foaters, 2017-2037
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